Croat Parties Campaign on EU Hope; Strategy Vague

ZAGREB - Croatian parties have kicked off campaigning for a November general election with similar slogans but subtly divergent paths for the crucial last leg of reforms needed for the country to join the European Union.

The election date has not yet been set, but is expected for late November. The winners, the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) or their rival Social Democrats (SDP), will have to wrap up Zagreb's EU membership talks in the next four years and possibly take the country into the bloc.

Analysts say both parties have Europe at the top of their agenda and there is little danger of a return to the hardline nationalism of the 1990s.

"A victory by either HDZ or SDP cannot threaten Croatia's strategic interests...These elections represent a choice between two mainstream options," said an editorial in Jutarnji List daily at the weekend.

Instead, the issue was their will to fully implement the economic and administrative reforms sought by the EU.

"We have become the West's reliable regional partner, we are treated as an example for the region.. But we have failed to implement reforms, so the new government must act quickly to make up for the lost time," said analyst Davor Gjenero.

Croatia will almost certainly be invited to enter NATO next year and hopes to complete EU accession talks by 2009. But EU officials have warned the most difficult reforms lie ahead.

"If the new administration does not complete the reforms and EU accession talks, they will have messed up badly and we will be able to say 'They are the ones who stopped Croatia's progress'," said political analyst Zeljko Trkanjec.


STRONGER STATE

At a weekend roundtable, the main parties' economic strategists spoke of a need to boost economic growth, improve living standards, join the EU and NATO, reform the judiciary and fight corruption. But neither offered a detailed strategy.

Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's HDZ favours privatisation and a completely free market that would encourage enterpreneurship.

In contrast, the SDP -- which reshuffled, elected a young leader and has had the edge over the HDZ in opinion polls for months -- wants a somewhat stronger state role in the economy and control over strategic infrastructure.

It has moved to woo the more conservative voters by flirting with nationalist rhetoric and arguing for a referendum on joining NATO and a more measured progress in EU talks, complemented by reforms at home.

SDP's new leader, Zoran Milanovic, told Reuters earlier this year the party would not hesitate to increase the budget deficit, if it could help boost the economy, and expected Croatia to join the EU in 2011 and adopt the euro around 2014.

Gjenero said the SDP may alienate voters by resorting to a populist economic programme "which is clearly at odds with the basic principles of economy in the EU and is returning to a dirigiste state role".

"SDP's traditional voters do not like that, they do not like this subtle euroscepticism. And SDP's edge in surveys is starting to melt," he said.

Up to five other smaller parties are likely to enter parliament and the winner may be decided through coalitions.