(CP) A prominent theologian is urging former President Donald Trump to drop out of the 2024 presidential race as he remains the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination.

In an op-ed piece for Newsweek, theologian Wayne Grudem made the case for why Trump should abandon his presidential bid. Grudem, a distinguished research professor of theology and biblical studies at Phoenix Seminary, began by identifying himself as a Trump voter in 2016 and 2020 who appreciated the work accomplished by his administration. He specifically praised Trump's judicial appointments, foreign policy, economic policy and immigration policy.

Grudem pivoted to discussing the stakes of the 2024 presidential election, noting that President Joe Biden "has steadily rolled back many of these achievements, and if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2024, more and more will be nullified." He warned that "Democrats will appoint liberal justices to the Supreme Court and lower courts; they will continually increase taxes; they will fuel inflation with runaway government spending, which will drive our nation even further into debt."

"They will place nearly impossible requirements on the use of coal, oil, and natural gas, thereby giving us ever more expensive and less reliable energy," he added. "They will keep our borders open because they hope millions of illegal immigrants will eventually become millions of additional Democrat voters. They will also increase their attacks on religious freedom and freedom of conscience. They will continue to weaken our military through relentless cuts to military budgets."

Asserting that "nearly all of Trump's legacy will be lost" in the event of a Democrat victory in the 2024 presidential election, Grudem outlined two potential courses of action the former president could take to determine the ultimate fate of his legacy. Under the "Plan A" envisioned by Grudem, "Trump stays in the race and wins the Republican nomination but loses the general election."

According to Grudem, "His legacy then will be that he made a good start in 2017-2021, but after that he and the candidates he supported led Republicans to defeat in 2020, 2022, and 2024 and all his reforms were lost." But under the "Plan B" proposed by Grudem, "Trump drops out of the race and a younger Republican wins the nomination and the general election."

"This new president will support policies similar to those that President Trump so effectively advocated," Grudem wrote. "Therefore, Trump's legacy will be secured. He will be remembered as a remarkable change agent who began to free us from the domination of a federal government that had become far too big and far too powerful."

After reiterating Trump's accomplishments, Grudem maintained: "If he drops out now, Trump will be remembered as the ex-president who with commendable humility put the good of the country ahead of his own personal ambition and withdrew from the race so that a more electable Republican could become president and spend the next eight years solidifying the policies that Trump began in 2017-2021."

Most of the op-ed discussed why Trump was a "weaker candidate than in 2016" who would lose the general election: "abysmal" support among independent voters, nearly identical unfavourability numbers to Biden in swing states, "refusing to admit that he lost the 2020 election," "recklessly refusing to call off the protesters when the demonstration turned violent on January 6," pending criminal cases, concerns about the former president's advanced age and character as well as a general sense of "Trump fatigue."

Grudem also cited Trump's "rash" endorsements of several U.S. Senate candidates in 2022, which he attributed to "losing Republican control of the U.S. Senate."

Democrats currently control the U.S. Senate 51-49, but Grudem suggests that Republicans could have won a majority of seats if Trump opted to "endorse the strong candidates" rather than "people who agreed with his claim that the election was stolen."

Identifying Arizona and Georgia as states where "incumbent Democrat senators" could have been soundly defeated by a reasonably competent Republican candidate in 2022," he lamented that "Trump foolishly endorsed Blake Masters in Arizona (who had never held any elective office), [and] Herschel Walker in Georgia (whose credibility was repeatedly challenged)."

Grudem dismissed the trend of polls showing Trump defeating Biden, as reflected in the RealClearPolitics average of polls showing the former president defeating his successor by 3.5 points: "To me, they mean nothing because I don't believe for a minute that the leadership of the Democrat Party will allow such an unpopular president as Biden to be their 2024 presidential candidate. I think the Democratic leaders are wrong about many policy convictions, but I don't think they are politically stupid."

"They are politically shrewd, and their eventual candidate will be much younger and much more popular," he said. Biden's current approval ratings, as documented in the RealClearPolitics average of polls taken since Nov. 27, show just 40.3% of Americans approve of his job performance compared to 55.6% who disapprove.

"The mainstream liberal press continues to run stories about Trump's huge lead among Republican voters and about polls showing that Trump could beat Biden, but I think that is because they recognize Trump's weakness among the general public. Therefore they want Trump as the Republican candidate, knowing that he would lose the general election. They will mostly hold off on running negative stories about Trump until after he wins the GOP nomination, and then the avalanche will start," he predicted.

Expressing concern that the focus of the election will be all about Trump if he wins the GOP nomination, Grudem opined that "if Trump drops out and another Republican is nominated, the election will be much more about big issues facing the nation."

Grudem concluded that "if the campaign is about issues, Republicans will likely win the presidency because the mood of the nation has shifted to much stronger support for Republican policies" such as school choice, originalist judges, lower taxes and border security.

Grudem's essay comes as Trump remains the overwhelming favourite to win the Republican nomination for president. The RealClearPolitics average sampling the intentions of GOP primary voters, based on polls conducted between Nov. 29 and Dec. 14, shows Trump capturing 63% support followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 12.4% and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 11.5%. All other candidates fail to break 10%.

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