A nationwide survey by UK charity National Churches Trust has raised concerns that as many as 2,000 churches across the UK could close within the next five years.
The charity, which works to assist and preserve historic church buildings, gathered 3,600 responses from congregations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in May and June.
The findings, published in the October edition of Future First, reveal that while most congregations remain optimistic about the future of their buildings, a small but significant proportion fear closure is imminent.
According to the survey, nearly 70% of respondents are confident their church will still be open for worship in 2030, with a further 26% saying it is “probably” secure.
However, 5% said they were unsure their church could survive, a figure which, if applied nationally, would amount to around one in every 20 congregations shutting their doors.
Churches in rural areas emerged as the most vulnerable, with 7% of respondents from countryside locations anticipating closure.
If borne out, this would equate to around 900 rural churches closing in the next five years.
The survey also highlighted denominational differences, with Methodists being the most uncertain and 12% of them predicting their church may close by 2030. Presbyterians were next, with 9% expressing doubt.
Baptists and Independents showed smaller but notable levels of concern, while Anglicans - who represent the largest share of congregations - reported a lower closure risk of 4%.
Despite the smaller percentage, the sheer number of Anglican churches means this could still translate to nearly 700 closures, including around 40 in Wales.
Listed status also appears to play a role in confidence levels.
Congregations worshipping in historic Grade I listed churches were more likely to believe their buildings would remain open compared to those in unlisted properties.
Cathedrals, meanwhile, expressed complete certainty that they would still be operating in 2030.
Overall, the research suggests that while most church buildings are expected to remain open, the combined effect of rural decline, denominational pressures, and financial challenges could see some 2,000 closures in the coming years.
